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Autor Tema: GRAN huracan Jimena 13L categoria 4, Pacifico Noreste, agosto 2015  (Leído 5139 veces)

Desconectado Gale

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Y otra tormenta tropical más en el EPAC...

Y esta llamada a convertirse en un poderoso huracán...

« Última modificación: Agosto 29, 2015, 12:04:36 pm por Gale »

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Re:Huracan Jimena 13L categoria 1, Pacifico Noreste, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #1 en: Agosto 28, 2015, 10:37:21 am »
8º huracán de la temporada en el EPAC...

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000
WTPZ23 KNHC 280835
TCMEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 121.0W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

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Re:Huracan Jimena 13L categoria 2, Pacifico Noreste, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #2 en: Agosto 29, 2015, 00:23:37 am »
El nacimiento de un monstruo :o :o :o :o :o


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Re:GRAN huracan Jimena 13L categoria 4, Pacifico Noreste, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #3 en: Agosto 29, 2015, 12:08:32 pm »
Esta noche, tal como se esperaba ayer a última hora, Jimena ha pegado el gran catapúm...

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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290852
TCDEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Jimena is an impressive hurricane on satellite imagery tonight with
a symmetric central dense overcast, warm eye, and fanning cirrus
outflow in all quadrants.  The current intensity estimate is 130 kt,
a blend of the latest Dvorak values from TAFB, SAB and UW-CIMSS.
While large-scale environmental factors are still favorable for
further strengthening this weekend, Jimena will likely go through an
eyewall replacement cycle during the next day or so, which can cause
fluctuations in intensity that are impossible to forecast. However,
Jimena is likely to remain a very powerful hurricane for the next
several days.  A slow decay is forecast by late Sunday since oceanic
and atmospheric conditions will only gradually become less
conducive, with a more pronounced weakening expected by mid-week.
The new forecast is primarily a blend of the previous one and the
statistical models in the first two days, with a heavier weight on
the intensity consensus at days 3 to 5.

The initial motion estimate is 270/8.  Jimena's heading should
become west-northwestward later today and continue in that general
direction for the next several days while it moves around the
subtropical ridge.  As Jimena nears a break in the ridge around
140W, a significant decrease in forward speed is likely after 96
hours.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new
track forecast has been moved only slightly southward, similar to
the adjustment made on the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 12.3N 124.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 12.5N 126.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 13.3N 128.2W  140 KT 160 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 15.0N 132.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 16.2N 137.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 17.7N 141.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


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Re:GRAN huracan Jimena 13L categoria 4, Pacifico Noreste, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #4 en: Agosto 29, 2015, 20:52:06 pm »
Así lo veía ayer tarde el satélite Suomi NPP en medio del proceso de RI


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Re:GRAN huracan Jimena 13L categoria 4, Pacifico Noreste, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #5 en: Agosto 29, 2015, 20:54:29 pm »
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油井 亀美也 Kimiya.Yui ‏@Astro_Kimiya  2 hHace 2 horas
Hurricane JIMENA. It's really scary to see the eye of the hurricane closely...




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Re:GRAN huracan Jimena 13L categoria 4, Pacifico Noreste, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #6 en: Agosto 30, 2015, 10:49:32 am »
Jimena sigue como categoría 4 aunque l"liado" con su ciclo de reemplazamiento del ojo... no parece que vaya a alcanzar ya la categoría 5.

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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 300251
TCDEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Jimena continues to undergo an eyewall replacement, with significant
inner-core structural changes seen in satellite data throughout
the day.  Microwave images show a small inner eyewall rotating
around an irregularly-shaped outer eyewall at about 60 n mi radius,
the latter which could be slowly contracting.  Although Jimena's
cloud pattern has fluctuated some during this period of inner-core
change, its overall organization has remained about the same
since the last advisory.  Satellite classifications seem to bear
this out, with intensity estimates of T6.0/115 kt and T6.5/127 kt
from SAB and TAFB, respectively, at 0000 UTC.  These are blended
with the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value of 6.1/117 kt to keep the initial
intensity estimate at 120 kt.

The intensity forecast is challenging.  The large-scale environment
is forecast to remain relatively favorable during the next day or
two, apart from some north-northwesterly shear associated with a
cold low to the northeast of Jimena.  This could allow an
opportunity for reintensification if the current eyewall
replacement fully plays out, but predicting intensity fluctuations
due to inner-core dynamics is nearly impossible and beyond the
scope of this forecast. Thus, a slow decrease in intensity is
indicated in the new forecast as large-scale conditions only
gradually become less conducive.  This is a blend of the
statistical-dynamical guidance. As Jimena gradually gains latitude
later in the forecast period, global models show a minor increase in
westerly shear while other thermodynamic factor remain generally
neutral, except for slowly decreasing SSTs.  These factors suggests
a slow decay of the cyclone, and the new intensity forecast is in
agreement with the latest multi-model consensus that shows a
monotonic decrease in intensity from days 3 to 5.

The eye of Jimena has been wobbling quite a bit, but smoothing
through these yields a faster initial motion estimate of 295/11.
Jimena should continue moving west-northwestward during the next few
days as it approaches the western end of a subtropical ridge around
140W.  A weakness in the ridge around this longitude should induce a
significant deceleration by days 4 and 5.  The track guidance is in
excellent agreement through the first 2 days, with less-than-typical
spread beyond that time.  The new track forecast is faster and
adjusted slightly southward and then westward after day 3, but not
as far south or west as the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 13.3N 127.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 13.9N 129.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 14.7N 131.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 15.4N 134.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 16.0N 136.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 16.9N 139.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 17.6N 141.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 18.1N 143.4W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


 



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