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Autor Tema: Tormenta tropical ERIKA 05L, Atlantico - RDP, agosto 2015  (Leído 6899 veces)

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Re:Tormenta tropical ERIKA 05L, Atlantico - RDP, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #15 en: Agosto 27, 2015, 13:33:15 pm »
Pues lo cierto es que se ha intensificado algo gracias al mantenimiento de esa convección tan intensa y amplia...



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000
WTNT45 KNHC 270856
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
500 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erika has
strengthened overnight, although it is not clear as to how much
. The
central pressure dropped to around 1001 mb around 0540Z, but was
up to 1003 mb on the next fix about an hour later. The highest
850-mb flight-level winds sampled by the aircraft were 48 kt, which
would correspond to an intensity of around 40 kt. However, the
aircraft found SFMR winds of 45 to 55 kt near the center. Based on a
blend of these data, the initial intensity has been conservatively
raised to 45 kt for this advisory
. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft will be investigating Erika again later this morning.

Aircraft data and satellite imagery show that Erika is still a
sheared tropical cyclone, with the deepest convection found east and
southeast of the center due to about 20 kt of westerly shear. The
models show the environment remaining unfavorable for significant
strengthening in the first 48 hours, with shear associated with an
upper-level trough west of Erika expected to increase to 25 to 30
kt. Given this, most of the intensity guidance shows little change
during the first couple of days and so does the NHC forecast. After
that time, the upper trough weakens and Erika should encounter a
more favorable upper-level pattern and warmer SSTs, which should
support intensification assuming that the cyclone survives the next
48 hours. The HWRF and GFDL are much stronger than the statistical
models this cycle, but the GFS and ECMWF now keep Erika weaker than
they did previously. The NHC forecast has been adjusted upward
slightly late in the period, but is well below the intensity
consensus given the large uncertainty and spread in the guidance.

Aircraft fixes and radar data from Guadeloupe were helpful in
finding the low-level center and determining an initial motion of
280/14. The steering flow from the subtropical ridge to the north
should result in a west-northwestward heading for the next 2 to 3
days. After that time, the spread in the guidance increases as the
cyclone moves between the southwestern edge of the ridge and a
mid/upper-level trough over the southeastern U.S. and Gulf of
Mexico. The models are in poor agreement on the eventual structure
and track of Erika late in the period. The ECMWF is weaker this
cycle and is on the left side of the dynamical model envelope. The
GFS, HWRF, and UKMET are all farther east but have trended west
this cycle. Given the large spread and the continued run-to-run
variability, little change was made to the NHC track forecast. The
new NHC forecast is closest to the latest GFS model prediction at
day 3 and beyond.

One should remember to not focus on the exact forecast track,
especially at the long range where the average NHC track errors
during the past 5 years are about 180 miles at day 4 and 240 miles
at day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 16.8N  61.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 17.6N  63.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 19.0N  66.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 20.3N  69.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 21.5N  71.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 24.0N  76.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  31/0600Z 26.5N  78.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  01/0600Z 29.0N  79.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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Re:Tormenta tropical ERIKA 05L, Atlantico - RDP, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #16 en: Agosto 27, 2015, 15:19:17 pm »
¿Me lo parece, o está más al S de lo previsto?

Es decir, según los modelos debería haber pasado algo más al N de Guadalupe&cia, pero no ha sido así. Ahora sin embargo le dan un quiebro algo brusco hacia el NW, lo que lo llevaría muy próximo a la trayectoria inicial antes de cruzar dichas islas.

Veremos a ver si no decide no girar lo suficiente y se encuentra con su final demasiado pronto...

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Re:Tormenta tropical ERIKA 05L, Atlantico - RDP, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #17 en: Agosto 27, 2015, 18:33:34 pm »
Hora local de Caracas 12pm

A pesar del aspecto que presenta, sigue desacoplada. ElCNH se mantiene reacio a ajustar trayectoria, la sigo viendo rumbo al O, las horas confirmarán pronósticos:



Caracas, Venezuela

@meteovenezuela
@climavzla

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Re:Tormenta tropical ERIKA 05L, Atlantico - RDP, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #18 en: Agosto 27, 2015, 18:52:05 pm »
La que ha liado la lluvia en la pequeña isla de Dominica, sobre la que está pasando Erika y su increíble convección...

https://www.youtube.com/v/lZh8tcphb9Q

https://www.youtube.com/v/dO0fm2OsI8c

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Re:Tormenta tropical ERIKA 05L, Atlantico - RDP, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #19 en: Agosto 27, 2015, 21:07:29 pm »
Después del daño causando en Dominica, Erika nos guiña el ojo  :o :o :o


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Re:Tormenta tropical ERIKA 05L, Atlantico - RDP, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #20 en: Agosto 27, 2015, 21:40:30 pm »
Impresionantes los videos Pedro, y esa imagen final del ojo medio tapado ! parece que Erika va a por mas !
Alhaurin el Grande (Málaga) 300 msnm.
Dani en TWITTER

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Re:Tormenta tropical ERIKA 05L, Atlantico - RDP, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #22 en: Agosto 28, 2015, 00:51:36 am »
Brutal. :o
Las Gabias (20.703 hab.), centro-SO de la Vega de Granada. A una altitud cercana a los 700 msnm.

Media precipitación año: 352 mm. (Datos BA. de Armilla-Period. 1981-2010).





Estaciones --> Sierra de Las Nieves (ACAMET)  -  Macizo de Líbar (ACAMET)

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Re:Tormenta tropical ERIKA 05L, Atlantico - RDP, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #23 en: Agosto 28, 2015, 10:12:27 am »
Erika mantiene una convección muy activa pero muy pobre organización. Es un bonito ejemplo de cómo un ciclón tropical pobremente organizado puede provocar grandes problemas, tan solo por su potencial de generar lluvia torrencial.

Ahora mismo asediando Puerto Rico en donde agradecerán la lluvia que está cayendo, si no va a más...



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000
WTNT45 KNHC 280304
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and it
appears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a larger
gyre.
In fact, one of these small swirls moved near St. Croix
producing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past few
hours on the island. Due to the lack of an inner core, the initial
position is based on a mean center of circulation. Despite the poor
organization, the reconnaissance plane currently in Erika was able
to measure 700 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt well to the southeast
of the alleged center. Based on the SFMR, these winds are not at the
surface, and the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt. The central
pressure is not falling, which is another indication that Erika is
not strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity
during the next 36 hours, given the fact that cyclone will be
moving through a very hostile shear environment, and will also feel
the effects of land. Once in the Bahamas, however, the upper-level
flow is expected to become more favorable, and if Erika survives, it
has the opportunity to strengthen some. The NHC forecast is very
close to the intensity consensus and is similar to the previous one.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270
degrees at 15 kt, and this estimate is highly uncertain. Erika
should begin to turn toward the west-northwest during the next
several hours around the periphery of the western Atlantic
subtropical ridge, and should reach the Central Bahamas between 36
and 48 hours. By then, the cyclone will be located on the
southwestern edge of the ridge, and should begin to turn to the
northwest with decreasing forward speed. Most of the track
guidance, including the ECMWF and the GFS global models, show a
tropical cyclone approaching southeast Florida in about 3 days and
moving northward near or over the east coast of Florida during the
latter portion of the forecast period.  There is unusually high
uncertainty in this forecast, especially at days 3 to 5, given that
the cyclone has to recover from shear and from the effects of
land for this to occur.

The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be
very heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight, and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday.
These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 16.6N  65.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 18.2N  67.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 19.7N  70.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 21.1N  73.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 22.5N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  31/0000Z 25.2N  79.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  01/0000Z 27.3N  80.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 29.5N  80.7W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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Re:Tormenta tropical ERIKA 05L, Atlantico - RDP, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #24 en: Agosto 28, 2015, 10:13:24 am »
Por otro lado, el CNH plantea un cambio de rumbo que no lo termino de ver... Aún lo  veremos metiéndose en aguas del GOM, en vez de afectar desde el sur a Florida...



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Re:Tormenta tropical ERIKA 05L, Atlantico - RDP, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #25 en: Agosto 28, 2015, 14:46:06 pm »
Viendo las primeras imágenes del visible, aunque la convección sigue siendo muy intensa y extensa, me surgen muchas dudas de si Erika sigue siendo un ciclón tropical, porque da la impresión de que el centro de circulación de niveles bajos se ha disuelto y no aparece bien definido...


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Re:Tormenta tropical ERIKA 05L, Atlantico - RDP, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #26 en: Agosto 28, 2015, 17:38:56 pm »
A ver si lo que quede de Erika llega a Cuba, porque allí tienen una situación complicada por culpa de la sequía :o :o :o :o

Importantes medidas adopta el país ante una sequía intensa que azota la nación, cuya situación hidrológica es la peor de los últimos 114 años.

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Re:Tormenta tropical ERIKA 05L, Atlantico - RDP, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #27 en: Agosto 28, 2015, 18:30:49 pm »
Lo de Dominica ha sido un auténtico desastre: 27 muertos ya...

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Emergency crews have reached the isolated village of Petite Savanne which appears to have been the hardest hit in Dominica. At least 27 people are reported dead there, with many bodies recovered. Eight other deaths occurred across the island for a storm total of at least 35 fatalities.
"If confirmed this will be the most deadly natural disaster in Dominica in recent history surpassing the death toll of Hurricane David in 1979 when 32 persons lost their lives. "

http://www.thedominican.net/2015/08/twenty-seven-dead-in-dominica.html

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Re:Tormenta tropical ERIKA 05L, Atlantico - RDP, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #28 en: Agosto 28, 2015, 19:46:54 pm »
El centro de Erika se encuentra muy cerca de la costa sur de Rep. Dominicana...

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Cancillería RD ‏@MIREXRD  2 hhace 2 horas
.@COE_RD ratifica ALERTA ROJA para todo territorio nacional por paso de #TormentaErika

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Re:Tormenta tropical ERIKA 05L, Atlantico - RDP, agosto 2015
« Respuesta #29 en: Agosto 28, 2015, 19:54:27 pm »
Cerquita cerquita el centro de Erika de la costa sur de Rep. Dominicana... Si se acierta con el pronóstico de ruta, mucha de la convección que arrastra al suroeste terminará pasando por la Española... Peligro potencial


 



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